Expected number of trials for all possible outcomes to happen

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Suppose that in each trial there are exactly $n$ possible outcomes with probabilities $p_1, dots, p_n$ which sum to $1$.



I wonder what's the expected number of trials for all outcomes to happen at least once?



If there were only two outcomes then geometric distribution seems to solve the problem. But i don't see a simple way to generalize it for the current problem. Any ideas are highly appreciated.










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  • Consider the least possible outcome with the smallest $p_i$.
    – msm
    Sep 9 at 12:07










  • combinatorics.org/ojs/index.php/eljc/article/view/v15i1n31/pdf
    – bof
    Sep 9 at 12:23










  • @bof Agreed. For the case with equal probabilities I think you meant $n(1+frac12+cdots + frac1n)$, right?
    – msm
    Sep 9 at 13:05










  • @msn Oops. Right.
    – bof
    Sep 9 at 13:17










  • For the case with equal probabilities, see math.stackexchange.com/q/28905.
    – Did
    Sep 9 at 13:28














up vote
1
down vote

favorite












Suppose that in each trial there are exactly $n$ possible outcomes with probabilities $p_1, dots, p_n$ which sum to $1$.



I wonder what's the expected number of trials for all outcomes to happen at least once?



If there were only two outcomes then geometric distribution seems to solve the problem. But i don't see a simple way to generalize it for the current problem. Any ideas are highly appreciated.










share|cite|improve this question





















  • Consider the least possible outcome with the smallest $p_i$.
    – msm
    Sep 9 at 12:07










  • combinatorics.org/ojs/index.php/eljc/article/view/v15i1n31/pdf
    – bof
    Sep 9 at 12:23










  • @bof Agreed. For the case with equal probabilities I think you meant $n(1+frac12+cdots + frac1n)$, right?
    – msm
    Sep 9 at 13:05










  • @msn Oops. Right.
    – bof
    Sep 9 at 13:17










  • For the case with equal probabilities, see math.stackexchange.com/q/28905.
    – Did
    Sep 9 at 13:28












up vote
1
down vote

favorite









up vote
1
down vote

favorite











Suppose that in each trial there are exactly $n$ possible outcomes with probabilities $p_1, dots, p_n$ which sum to $1$.



I wonder what's the expected number of trials for all outcomes to happen at least once?



If there were only two outcomes then geometric distribution seems to solve the problem. But i don't see a simple way to generalize it for the current problem. Any ideas are highly appreciated.










share|cite|improve this question













Suppose that in each trial there are exactly $n$ possible outcomes with probabilities $p_1, dots, p_n$ which sum to $1$.



I wonder what's the expected number of trials for all outcomes to happen at least once?



If there were only two outcomes then geometric distribution seems to solve the problem. But i don't see a simple way to generalize it for the current problem. Any ideas are highly appreciated.







probability combinatorics probability-distributions






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asked Sep 9 at 11:57









Igor

1,093917




1,093917











  • Consider the least possible outcome with the smallest $p_i$.
    – msm
    Sep 9 at 12:07










  • combinatorics.org/ojs/index.php/eljc/article/view/v15i1n31/pdf
    – bof
    Sep 9 at 12:23










  • @bof Agreed. For the case with equal probabilities I think you meant $n(1+frac12+cdots + frac1n)$, right?
    – msm
    Sep 9 at 13:05










  • @msn Oops. Right.
    – bof
    Sep 9 at 13:17










  • For the case with equal probabilities, see math.stackexchange.com/q/28905.
    – Did
    Sep 9 at 13:28
















  • Consider the least possible outcome with the smallest $p_i$.
    – msm
    Sep 9 at 12:07










  • combinatorics.org/ojs/index.php/eljc/article/view/v15i1n31/pdf
    – bof
    Sep 9 at 12:23










  • @bof Agreed. For the case with equal probabilities I think you meant $n(1+frac12+cdots + frac1n)$, right?
    – msm
    Sep 9 at 13:05










  • @msn Oops. Right.
    – bof
    Sep 9 at 13:17










  • For the case with equal probabilities, see math.stackexchange.com/q/28905.
    – Did
    Sep 9 at 13:28















Consider the least possible outcome with the smallest $p_i$.
– msm
Sep 9 at 12:07




Consider the least possible outcome with the smallest $p_i$.
– msm
Sep 9 at 12:07












combinatorics.org/ojs/index.php/eljc/article/view/v15i1n31/pdf
– bof
Sep 9 at 12:23




combinatorics.org/ojs/index.php/eljc/article/view/v15i1n31/pdf
– bof
Sep 9 at 12:23












@bof Agreed. For the case with equal probabilities I think you meant $n(1+frac12+cdots + frac1n)$, right?
– msm
Sep 9 at 13:05




@bof Agreed. For the case with equal probabilities I think you meant $n(1+frac12+cdots + frac1n)$, right?
– msm
Sep 9 at 13:05












@msn Oops. Right.
– bof
Sep 9 at 13:17




@msn Oops. Right.
– bof
Sep 9 at 13:17












For the case with equal probabilities, see math.stackexchange.com/q/28905.
– Did
Sep 9 at 13:28




For the case with equal probabilities, see math.stackexchange.com/q/28905.
– Did
Sep 9 at 13:28










1 Answer
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Note that $$E(T)=sum_t=0^infty P(T>t)=sum_t=0^infty P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))$$ where, for each $k$, $A(k,t)$ denotes the event that none of the $t$ first tries produces the result $k$. Now, $$P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=iP(A(I,t))$$ where, for every $Isubseteq1,2,ldots,n$, $$A(I,t)=bigcap_iin IA(i,t)$$ Thus, $$P(A(I,t))=(1-p_I)^t$$ where $$p_I=sum_iin Ip_i$$ Collecting everything, one gets $$E(T)=sum_t=0^inftysum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=i(1-p_I)^t$$ that is,




$$E(T)=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=ifrac1p_I$$




This expresses $E(T)$ as the sum of $2^n-1$ terms. For example, for three different results, $$E(T)=frac1p_1+frac1p_2+frac1p_3-frac11-p_1-frac11-p_2-frac11-p_3+1$$
In the equiprobable case, $p_k=1/n$ for every $k$ in $1,2,ldots,n$, hence
$$E(T)=sum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kfrac nk$$ Equivalently, $$E(T)=nsum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kint_0^1x^k-1dx$$ that is, $$E(T)=nint_0^1(1-(1-x)^n)fracdxx=nint_0^1frac1-x^n1-xdx$$ or $$E(T)=nint_0^1sum_i=0^n-1x^idx$$ that is, finally, $$E(T)=nsum_i=1^nfrac1i=nH_n$$ as already known.






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    1 Answer
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    1 Answer
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    Note that $$E(T)=sum_t=0^infty P(T>t)=sum_t=0^infty P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))$$ where, for each $k$, $A(k,t)$ denotes the event that none of the $t$ first tries produces the result $k$. Now, $$P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=iP(A(I,t))$$ where, for every $Isubseteq1,2,ldots,n$, $$A(I,t)=bigcap_iin IA(i,t)$$ Thus, $$P(A(I,t))=(1-p_I)^t$$ where $$p_I=sum_iin Ip_i$$ Collecting everything, one gets $$E(T)=sum_t=0^inftysum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=i(1-p_I)^t$$ that is,




    $$E(T)=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=ifrac1p_I$$




    This expresses $E(T)$ as the sum of $2^n-1$ terms. For example, for three different results, $$E(T)=frac1p_1+frac1p_2+frac1p_3-frac11-p_1-frac11-p_2-frac11-p_3+1$$
    In the equiprobable case, $p_k=1/n$ for every $k$ in $1,2,ldots,n$, hence
    $$E(T)=sum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kfrac nk$$ Equivalently, $$E(T)=nsum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kint_0^1x^k-1dx$$ that is, $$E(T)=nint_0^1(1-(1-x)^n)fracdxx=nint_0^1frac1-x^n1-xdx$$ or $$E(T)=nint_0^1sum_i=0^n-1x^idx$$ that is, finally, $$E(T)=nsum_i=1^nfrac1i=nH_n$$ as already known.






    share|cite|improve this answer


























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      Note that $$E(T)=sum_t=0^infty P(T>t)=sum_t=0^infty P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))$$ where, for each $k$, $A(k,t)$ denotes the event that none of the $t$ first tries produces the result $k$. Now, $$P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=iP(A(I,t))$$ where, for every $Isubseteq1,2,ldots,n$, $$A(I,t)=bigcap_iin IA(i,t)$$ Thus, $$P(A(I,t))=(1-p_I)^t$$ where $$p_I=sum_iin Ip_i$$ Collecting everything, one gets $$E(T)=sum_t=0^inftysum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=i(1-p_I)^t$$ that is,




      $$E(T)=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=ifrac1p_I$$




      This expresses $E(T)$ as the sum of $2^n-1$ terms. For example, for three different results, $$E(T)=frac1p_1+frac1p_2+frac1p_3-frac11-p_1-frac11-p_2-frac11-p_3+1$$
      In the equiprobable case, $p_k=1/n$ for every $k$ in $1,2,ldots,n$, hence
      $$E(T)=sum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kfrac nk$$ Equivalently, $$E(T)=nsum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kint_0^1x^k-1dx$$ that is, $$E(T)=nint_0^1(1-(1-x)^n)fracdxx=nint_0^1frac1-x^n1-xdx$$ or $$E(T)=nint_0^1sum_i=0^n-1x^idx$$ that is, finally, $$E(T)=nsum_i=1^nfrac1i=nH_n$$ as already known.






      share|cite|improve this answer
























        up vote
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        down vote



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        up vote
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        down vote



        accepted






        Note that $$E(T)=sum_t=0^infty P(T>t)=sum_t=0^infty P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))$$ where, for each $k$, $A(k,t)$ denotes the event that none of the $t$ first tries produces the result $k$. Now, $$P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=iP(A(I,t))$$ where, for every $Isubseteq1,2,ldots,n$, $$A(I,t)=bigcap_iin IA(i,t)$$ Thus, $$P(A(I,t))=(1-p_I)^t$$ where $$p_I=sum_iin Ip_i$$ Collecting everything, one gets $$E(T)=sum_t=0^inftysum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=i(1-p_I)^t$$ that is,




        $$E(T)=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=ifrac1p_I$$




        This expresses $E(T)$ as the sum of $2^n-1$ terms. For example, for three different results, $$E(T)=frac1p_1+frac1p_2+frac1p_3-frac11-p_1-frac11-p_2-frac11-p_3+1$$
        In the equiprobable case, $p_k=1/n$ for every $k$ in $1,2,ldots,n$, hence
        $$E(T)=sum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kfrac nk$$ Equivalently, $$E(T)=nsum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kint_0^1x^k-1dx$$ that is, $$E(T)=nint_0^1(1-(1-x)^n)fracdxx=nint_0^1frac1-x^n1-xdx$$ or $$E(T)=nint_0^1sum_i=0^n-1x^idx$$ that is, finally, $$E(T)=nsum_i=1^nfrac1i=nH_n$$ as already known.






        share|cite|improve this answer














        Note that $$E(T)=sum_t=0^infty P(T>t)=sum_t=0^infty P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))$$ where, for each $k$, $A(k,t)$ denotes the event that none of the $t$ first tries produces the result $k$. Now, $$P(A(1,t)cup A(2,t)cupcdotscup A(n,t))=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=iP(A(I,t))$$ where, for every $Isubseteq1,2,ldots,n$, $$A(I,t)=bigcap_iin IA(i,t)$$ Thus, $$P(A(I,t))=(1-p_I)^t$$ where $$p_I=sum_iin Ip_i$$ Collecting everything, one gets $$E(T)=sum_t=0^inftysum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=i(1-p_I)^t$$ that is,




        $$E(T)=sum_i=1^n(-1)^i+1sum_=ifrac1p_I$$




        This expresses $E(T)$ as the sum of $2^n-1$ terms. For example, for three different results, $$E(T)=frac1p_1+frac1p_2+frac1p_3-frac11-p_1-frac11-p_2-frac11-p_3+1$$
        In the equiprobable case, $p_k=1/n$ for every $k$ in $1,2,ldots,n$, hence
        $$E(T)=sum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kfrac nk$$ Equivalently, $$E(T)=nsum_k=1^n(-1)^k+1nchoose kint_0^1x^k-1dx$$ that is, $$E(T)=nint_0^1(1-(1-x)^n)fracdxx=nint_0^1frac1-x^n1-xdx$$ or $$E(T)=nint_0^1sum_i=0^n-1x^idx$$ that is, finally, $$E(T)=nsum_i=1^nfrac1i=nH_n$$ as already known.







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        edited Sep 9 at 14:03

























        answered Sep 9 at 13:53









        Did

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