Probability question with a hard to find limit as its answer.

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Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables. For $n=1,2,3,...$ we have $$mathbbP(X=n)=p(1-p)^n
\mathbbP(Y=n)=q(1-q)^n$$

For some $p$ and $q$. Find $mathbbP(Xleq Y)$



What I would like to know is:
1. Is my reasoning (the probabilistic part of the question) right?
2. Someone to help me find this limit I have got at the end.
So since these are probabilities we have$p$ and $q$ need to be in $(0,1)$, this follows from the formula for a sum of geometric series. Now, notice that we are interested in finding sum of all $mathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)\$ such that $nleq m$. So in fact we can take the limit of the partial sums $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)$$ $X$ and $Y$ are independent so this translates to $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n)mathbbP(Y=m)=lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1sum_n=1^m(1-p)^n-1p $$ using geometric series formula we get
$$lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1(1-(1-p)^m) $$



and here I am stuck evaluating this limit. I could write down what I tried, but it took me nowhere closer to the result.










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    Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables. For $n=1,2,3,...$ we have $$mathbbP(X=n)=p(1-p)^n
    \mathbbP(Y=n)=q(1-q)^n$$

    For some $p$ and $q$. Find $mathbbP(Xleq Y)$



    What I would like to know is:
    1. Is my reasoning (the probabilistic part of the question) right?
    2. Someone to help me find this limit I have got at the end.
    So since these are probabilities we have$p$ and $q$ need to be in $(0,1)$, this follows from the formula for a sum of geometric series. Now, notice that we are interested in finding sum of all $mathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)\$ such that $nleq m$. So in fact we can take the limit of the partial sums $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)$$ $X$ and $Y$ are independent so this translates to $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n)mathbbP(Y=m)=lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1sum_n=1^m(1-p)^n-1p $$ using geometric series formula we get
    $$lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1(1-(1-p)^m) $$



    and here I am stuck evaluating this limit. I could write down what I tried, but it took me nowhere closer to the result.










    share|cite|improve this question























      up vote
      1
      down vote

      favorite









      up vote
      1
      down vote

      favorite











      Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables. For $n=1,2,3,...$ we have $$mathbbP(X=n)=p(1-p)^n
      \mathbbP(Y=n)=q(1-q)^n$$

      For some $p$ and $q$. Find $mathbbP(Xleq Y)$



      What I would like to know is:
      1. Is my reasoning (the probabilistic part of the question) right?
      2. Someone to help me find this limit I have got at the end.
      So since these are probabilities we have$p$ and $q$ need to be in $(0,1)$, this follows from the formula for a sum of geometric series. Now, notice that we are interested in finding sum of all $mathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)\$ such that $nleq m$. So in fact we can take the limit of the partial sums $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)$$ $X$ and $Y$ are independent so this translates to $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n)mathbbP(Y=m)=lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1sum_n=1^m(1-p)^n-1p $$ using geometric series formula we get
      $$lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1(1-(1-p)^m) $$



      and here I am stuck evaluating this limit. I could write down what I tried, but it took me nowhere closer to the result.










      share|cite|improve this question













      Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables. For $n=1,2,3,...$ we have $$mathbbP(X=n)=p(1-p)^n
      \mathbbP(Y=n)=q(1-q)^n$$

      For some $p$ and $q$. Find $mathbbP(Xleq Y)$



      What I would like to know is:
      1. Is my reasoning (the probabilistic part of the question) right?
      2. Someone to help me find this limit I have got at the end.
      So since these are probabilities we have$p$ and $q$ need to be in $(0,1)$, this follows from the formula for a sum of geometric series. Now, notice that we are interested in finding sum of all $mathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)\$ such that $nleq m$. So in fact we can take the limit of the partial sums $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)$$ $X$ and $Y$ are independent so this translates to $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n)mathbbP(Y=m)=lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1sum_n=1^m(1-p)^n-1p $$ using geometric series formula we get
      $$lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1(1-(1-p)^m) $$



      and here I am stuck evaluating this limit. I could write down what I tried, but it took me nowhere closer to the result.







      calculus probability analysis probability-theory






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      asked Sep 10 at 9:59









      Kacper

      339112




      339112




















          2 Answers
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          $PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).






          share|cite|improve this answer




















          • Now I see, thanks a lot!
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 10:18


















          up vote
          1
          down vote













          It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.






          share|cite|improve this answer




















          • I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:06







          • 1




            @Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:18










          • How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:29










          • Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:44











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          2 Answers
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          active

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          2 Answers
          2






          active

          oldest

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          active

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          up vote
          1
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          $PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).






          share|cite|improve this answer




















          • Now I see, thanks a lot!
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 10:18















          up vote
          1
          down vote













          $PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).






          share|cite|improve this answer




















          • Now I see, thanks a lot!
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 10:18













          up vote
          1
          down vote










          up vote
          1
          down vote









          $PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).






          share|cite|improve this answer












          $PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).







          share|cite|improve this answer












          share|cite|improve this answer



          share|cite|improve this answer










          answered Sep 10 at 10:05









          Kavi Rama Murthy

          27.2k31439




          27.2k31439











          • Now I see, thanks a lot!
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 10:18

















          • Now I see, thanks a lot!
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 10:18
















          Now I see, thanks a lot!
          – Kacper
          Sep 10 at 10:18





          Now I see, thanks a lot!
          – Kacper
          Sep 10 at 10:18











          up vote
          1
          down vote













          It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.






          share|cite|improve this answer




















          • I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:06







          • 1




            @Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:18










          • How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:29










          • Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:44















          up vote
          1
          down vote













          It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.






          share|cite|improve this answer




















          • I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:06







          • 1




            @Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:18










          • How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:29










          • Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:44













          up vote
          1
          down vote










          up vote
          1
          down vote









          It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.






          share|cite|improve this answer












          It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.







          share|cite|improve this answer












          share|cite|improve this answer



          share|cite|improve this answer










          answered Sep 10 at 10:20









          Especially Lime

          19.7k22353




          19.7k22353











          • I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:06







          • 1




            @Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:18










          • How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:29










          • Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:44

















          • I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:06







          • 1




            @Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:18










          • How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
            – Kacper
            Sep 10 at 11:29










          • Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
            – Especially Lime
            Sep 10 at 11:44
















          I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
          – Kacper
          Sep 10 at 11:06





          I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
          – Kacper
          Sep 10 at 11:06





          1




          1




          @Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
          – Especially Lime
          Sep 10 at 11:18




          @Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
          – Especially Lime
          Sep 10 at 11:18












          How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
          – Kacper
          Sep 10 at 11:29




          How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
          – Kacper
          Sep 10 at 11:29












          Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
          – Especially Lime
          Sep 10 at 11:44





          Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
          – Especially Lime
          Sep 10 at 11:44


















           

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