Probability question with a hard to find limit as its answer.

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Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables. For $n=1,2,3,...$ we have $$mathbbP(X=n)=p(1-p)^n
\mathbbP(Y=n)=q(1-q)^n$$
For some $p$ and $q$. Find $mathbbP(Xleq Y)$
What I would like to know is:
1. Is my reasoning (the probabilistic part of the question) right?
2. Someone to help me find this limit I have got at the end.
So since these are probabilities we have$p$ and $q$ need to be in $(0,1)$, this follows from the formula for a sum of geometric series. Now, notice that we are interested in finding sum of all $mathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)\$ such that $nleq m$. So in fact we can take the limit of the partial sums $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)$$ $X$ and $Y$ are independent so this translates to $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n)mathbbP(Y=m)=lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1sum_n=1^m(1-p)^n-1p $$ using geometric series formula we get
$$lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1(1-(1-p)^m) $$
and here I am stuck evaluating this limit. I could write down what I tried, but it took me nowhere closer to the result.
calculus probability analysis probability-theory
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up vote
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Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables. For $n=1,2,3,...$ we have $$mathbbP(X=n)=p(1-p)^n
\mathbbP(Y=n)=q(1-q)^n$$
For some $p$ and $q$. Find $mathbbP(Xleq Y)$
What I would like to know is:
1. Is my reasoning (the probabilistic part of the question) right?
2. Someone to help me find this limit I have got at the end.
So since these are probabilities we have$p$ and $q$ need to be in $(0,1)$, this follows from the formula for a sum of geometric series. Now, notice that we are interested in finding sum of all $mathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)\$ such that $nleq m$. So in fact we can take the limit of the partial sums $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)$$ $X$ and $Y$ are independent so this translates to $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n)mathbbP(Y=m)=lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1sum_n=1^m(1-p)^n-1p $$ using geometric series formula we get
$$lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1(1-(1-p)^m) $$
and here I am stuck evaluating this limit. I could write down what I tried, but it took me nowhere closer to the result.
calculus probability analysis probability-theory
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
favorite
up vote
1
down vote
favorite
Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables. For $n=1,2,3,...$ we have $$mathbbP(X=n)=p(1-p)^n
\mathbbP(Y=n)=q(1-q)^n$$
For some $p$ and $q$. Find $mathbbP(Xleq Y)$
What I would like to know is:
1. Is my reasoning (the probabilistic part of the question) right?
2. Someone to help me find this limit I have got at the end.
So since these are probabilities we have$p$ and $q$ need to be in $(0,1)$, this follows from the formula for a sum of geometric series. Now, notice that we are interested in finding sum of all $mathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)\$ such that $nleq m$. So in fact we can take the limit of the partial sums $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)$$ $X$ and $Y$ are independent so this translates to $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n)mathbbP(Y=m)=lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1sum_n=1^m(1-p)^n-1p $$ using geometric series formula we get
$$lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1(1-(1-p)^m) $$
and here I am stuck evaluating this limit. I could write down what I tried, but it took me nowhere closer to the result.
calculus probability analysis probability-theory
Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables. For $n=1,2,3,...$ we have $$mathbbP(X=n)=p(1-p)^n
\mathbbP(Y=n)=q(1-q)^n$$
For some $p$ and $q$. Find $mathbbP(Xleq Y)$
What I would like to know is:
1. Is my reasoning (the probabilistic part of the question) right?
2. Someone to help me find this limit I have got at the end.
So since these are probabilities we have$p$ and $q$ need to be in $(0,1)$, this follows from the formula for a sum of geometric series. Now, notice that we are interested in finding sum of all $mathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)\$ such that $nleq m$. So in fact we can take the limit of the partial sums $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n wedge Y=m)$$ $X$ and $Y$ are independent so this translates to $$lim_mto inftysum_n=1^mmathbbP(X=n)mathbbP(Y=m)=lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1sum_n=1^m(1-p)^n-1p $$ using geometric series formula we get
$$lim_mto inftyq(1-q)^m-1(1-(1-p)^m) $$
and here I am stuck evaluating this limit. I could write down what I tried, but it took me nowhere closer to the result.
calculus probability analysis probability-theory
calculus probability analysis probability-theory
asked Sep 10 at 9:59
Kacper
339112
339112
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2 Answers
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$PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).
Now I see, thanks a lot!
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 10:18
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up vote
1
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It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.
I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:06
1
@Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:18
How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:29
Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:44
add a comment |Â
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
up vote
1
down vote
$PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).
Now I see, thanks a lot!
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 10:18
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
$PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).
Now I see, thanks a lot!
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 10:18
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
up vote
1
down vote
$PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).
$PXleq Y=sum_m=1^infty sum _n=1 ^m PX=n,Y=m$. You have written limit instead of sum over $m$. Now try to compute $sum_m=1^infty q(1-q)^m-1[1-(1-p)^m]$. (You will have to sum two geometric series and take the difference).
answered Sep 10 at 10:05


Kavi Rama Murthy
27.2k31439
27.2k31439
Now I see, thanks a lot!
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 10:18
add a comment |Â
Now I see, thanks a lot!
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 10:18
Now I see, thanks a lot!
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 10:18
Now I see, thanks a lot!
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 10:18
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.
I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:06
1
@Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:18
How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:29
Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:44
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.
I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:06
1
@Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:18
How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:29
Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:44
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
up vote
1
down vote
It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.
It's possible to do this question without calculating any infinite sums. Hint: work out $mathbb P(X=nmidmin(X,Y)=n)$.
answered Sep 10 at 10:20
Especially Lime
19.7k22353
19.7k22353
I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:06
1
@Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:18
How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:29
Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:44
add a comment |Â
I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:06
1
@Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:18
How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:29
Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:44
I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:06
I think I get what you mean, You want me to find $mathbbP(X=n | min(X,Y)=n)$, to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n | X=n) = fracmathbbP(X=n mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$ but I dont know how to get $mathbbP(min(X,Y)=n)$
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:06
1
1
@Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:18
@Kacper $X$ and $Y$ are geometric variables (giving the number of trials up to and including the first success) with success probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively. So $min(X,Y)$ gives the first time you get a success in at least one of them, which is geometric with success probability $1-(1-p)(1-q)$.
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:18
How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:29
How come it can be independent on $n$ ?
– Kacper
Sep 10 at 11:29
Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:44
Essentially, because for any $n$ what you are looking at is the probability that $X$ has a success at time $n$, given that $X$ or $Y$ has a success at time $n$ (the factors corresponding to there being no earlier successes will cancel).
– Especially Lime
Sep 10 at 11:44
add a comment |Â
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