Result and proof on the conditional expectation of the product of two random variables
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My problem is the following:
$X$ and $Y$ are two random variables and $mathcalF$ is a $sigma$-algebra. Given that $X$ and $Y$ are independent, and that $X$ is independent of $mathcalF$, can I affirm that
$$mathbbE(XY mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)?$$
My intuition is yes but I did not manage to find a formal proof. Any idea ?
Thanks a lot.
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expectation
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up vote
6
down vote
favorite
My problem is the following:
$X$ and $Y$ are two random variables and $mathcalF$ is a $sigma$-algebra. Given that $X$ and $Y$ are independent, and that $X$ is independent of $mathcalF$, can I affirm that
$$mathbbE(XY mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)?$$
My intuition is yes but I did not manage to find a formal proof. Any idea ?
Thanks a lot.
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expectation
add a comment |Â
up vote
6
down vote
favorite
up vote
6
down vote
favorite
My problem is the following:
$X$ and $Y$ are two random variables and $mathcalF$ is a $sigma$-algebra. Given that $X$ and $Y$ are independent, and that $X$ is independent of $mathcalF$, can I affirm that
$$mathbbE(XY mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)?$$
My intuition is yes but I did not manage to find a formal proof. Any idea ?
Thanks a lot.
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expectation
My problem is the following:
$X$ and $Y$ are two random variables and $mathcalF$ is a $sigma$-algebra. Given that $X$ and $Y$ are independent, and that $X$ is independent of $mathcalF$, can I affirm that
$$mathbbE(XY mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)?$$
My intuition is yes but I did not manage to find a formal proof. Any idea ?
Thanks a lot.
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expectation
probability probability-theory probability-distributions expectation
edited Sep 14 '15 at 9:13
saz
74k553113
74k553113
asked Oct 29 '13 at 16:55
vitaly
7016
7016
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1 Answer
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No, in general the statement is not correct.
Example Consider sets $A_1,A_2,A_3$ such that $mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0$ and $mathbbP(A_i)>0$, $mathbbP(A_i cap A_j) = mathbbP(A_i) cdot mathbbP(A_j)$ for any two $i,j in 1,2,3$. Set $X:=1_A_1$, $Y=1_A_2$, $mathcalF := sigma(1_A_3)$. Then $X$ and $Y$ are independent, as well as $X$ and $mathcalF$, so the assumption on the independence is satisfied. For $F:= A_3$ we have
$$int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP = int 1_A_1 cdot 1_A_2 cdot 1_A_3 , dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0 tag1 $$
On the other hand,
$$int_F mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF), dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1) cdot underbracemathbbE(Y)_mathbbP(A_2) cdot mathbbP(A_3)>0 tag2$$
where we used that $Y$ and $mathcalF$ are independent (hence $mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)=mathbbE(Y)$). Since by the definition of conditional expectation
$$0 stackrel(1)= int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP stackrel!= int_F mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) , dmathbbP$$
we conclude from $(2)$ that
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) neq mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
But: If $sigma(X)$ is independent of $sigma(Y,mathcalF)$ (i.e. the smallest $sigma$-algebra containing $mathcalF$ and $sigma(Y)$), then the claim holds as the following proof shows:
Denote by $mathcalG := sigma(mathcalF,sigma(Y))$ the $sigma$-algebra generated by $mathcalF$ and $Y$. Since $sigma(X)$ and $mathcalG$ are independent, we have
$$mathbbE(X mid mathcalG) = mathbbE(X)$$
Consequently, by the tower property
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(Y cdot underbracemathbbE(X mid mathcalG)_mathbbE(X) mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
2
I have used your answer to correct the Wikipedia page on conditional expectation (see <en.wikipedia.org/w/â¦). Thank you.
â Ben Whitney
Jul 9 '15 at 19:32
add a comment |Â
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
up vote
9
down vote
accepted
No, in general the statement is not correct.
Example Consider sets $A_1,A_2,A_3$ such that $mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0$ and $mathbbP(A_i)>0$, $mathbbP(A_i cap A_j) = mathbbP(A_i) cdot mathbbP(A_j)$ for any two $i,j in 1,2,3$. Set $X:=1_A_1$, $Y=1_A_2$, $mathcalF := sigma(1_A_3)$. Then $X$ and $Y$ are independent, as well as $X$ and $mathcalF$, so the assumption on the independence is satisfied. For $F:= A_3$ we have
$$int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP = int 1_A_1 cdot 1_A_2 cdot 1_A_3 , dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0 tag1 $$
On the other hand,
$$int_F mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF), dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1) cdot underbracemathbbE(Y)_mathbbP(A_2) cdot mathbbP(A_3)>0 tag2$$
where we used that $Y$ and $mathcalF$ are independent (hence $mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)=mathbbE(Y)$). Since by the definition of conditional expectation
$$0 stackrel(1)= int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP stackrel!= int_F mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) , dmathbbP$$
we conclude from $(2)$ that
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) neq mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
But: If $sigma(X)$ is independent of $sigma(Y,mathcalF)$ (i.e. the smallest $sigma$-algebra containing $mathcalF$ and $sigma(Y)$), then the claim holds as the following proof shows:
Denote by $mathcalG := sigma(mathcalF,sigma(Y))$ the $sigma$-algebra generated by $mathcalF$ and $Y$. Since $sigma(X)$ and $mathcalG$ are independent, we have
$$mathbbE(X mid mathcalG) = mathbbE(X)$$
Consequently, by the tower property
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(Y cdot underbracemathbbE(X mid mathcalG)_mathbbE(X) mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
2
I have used your answer to correct the Wikipedia page on conditional expectation (see <en.wikipedia.org/w/â¦). Thank you.
â Ben Whitney
Jul 9 '15 at 19:32
add a comment |Â
up vote
9
down vote
accepted
No, in general the statement is not correct.
Example Consider sets $A_1,A_2,A_3$ such that $mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0$ and $mathbbP(A_i)>0$, $mathbbP(A_i cap A_j) = mathbbP(A_i) cdot mathbbP(A_j)$ for any two $i,j in 1,2,3$. Set $X:=1_A_1$, $Y=1_A_2$, $mathcalF := sigma(1_A_3)$. Then $X$ and $Y$ are independent, as well as $X$ and $mathcalF$, so the assumption on the independence is satisfied. For $F:= A_3$ we have
$$int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP = int 1_A_1 cdot 1_A_2 cdot 1_A_3 , dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0 tag1 $$
On the other hand,
$$int_F mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF), dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1) cdot underbracemathbbE(Y)_mathbbP(A_2) cdot mathbbP(A_3)>0 tag2$$
where we used that $Y$ and $mathcalF$ are independent (hence $mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)=mathbbE(Y)$). Since by the definition of conditional expectation
$$0 stackrel(1)= int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP stackrel!= int_F mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) , dmathbbP$$
we conclude from $(2)$ that
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) neq mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
But: If $sigma(X)$ is independent of $sigma(Y,mathcalF)$ (i.e. the smallest $sigma$-algebra containing $mathcalF$ and $sigma(Y)$), then the claim holds as the following proof shows:
Denote by $mathcalG := sigma(mathcalF,sigma(Y))$ the $sigma$-algebra generated by $mathcalF$ and $Y$. Since $sigma(X)$ and $mathcalG$ are independent, we have
$$mathbbE(X mid mathcalG) = mathbbE(X)$$
Consequently, by the tower property
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(Y cdot underbracemathbbE(X mid mathcalG)_mathbbE(X) mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
2
I have used your answer to correct the Wikipedia page on conditional expectation (see <en.wikipedia.org/w/â¦). Thank you.
â Ben Whitney
Jul 9 '15 at 19:32
add a comment |Â
up vote
9
down vote
accepted
up vote
9
down vote
accepted
No, in general the statement is not correct.
Example Consider sets $A_1,A_2,A_3$ such that $mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0$ and $mathbbP(A_i)>0$, $mathbbP(A_i cap A_j) = mathbbP(A_i) cdot mathbbP(A_j)$ for any two $i,j in 1,2,3$. Set $X:=1_A_1$, $Y=1_A_2$, $mathcalF := sigma(1_A_3)$. Then $X$ and $Y$ are independent, as well as $X$ and $mathcalF$, so the assumption on the independence is satisfied. For $F:= A_3$ we have
$$int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP = int 1_A_1 cdot 1_A_2 cdot 1_A_3 , dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0 tag1 $$
On the other hand,
$$int_F mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF), dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1) cdot underbracemathbbE(Y)_mathbbP(A_2) cdot mathbbP(A_3)>0 tag2$$
where we used that $Y$ and $mathcalF$ are independent (hence $mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)=mathbbE(Y)$). Since by the definition of conditional expectation
$$0 stackrel(1)= int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP stackrel!= int_F mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) , dmathbbP$$
we conclude from $(2)$ that
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) neq mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
But: If $sigma(X)$ is independent of $sigma(Y,mathcalF)$ (i.e. the smallest $sigma$-algebra containing $mathcalF$ and $sigma(Y)$), then the claim holds as the following proof shows:
Denote by $mathcalG := sigma(mathcalF,sigma(Y))$ the $sigma$-algebra generated by $mathcalF$ and $Y$. Since $sigma(X)$ and $mathcalG$ are independent, we have
$$mathbbE(X mid mathcalG) = mathbbE(X)$$
Consequently, by the tower property
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(Y cdot underbracemathbbE(X mid mathcalG)_mathbbE(X) mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
No, in general the statement is not correct.
Example Consider sets $A_1,A_2,A_3$ such that $mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0$ and $mathbbP(A_i)>0$, $mathbbP(A_i cap A_j) = mathbbP(A_i) cdot mathbbP(A_j)$ for any two $i,j in 1,2,3$. Set $X:=1_A_1$, $Y=1_A_2$, $mathcalF := sigma(1_A_3)$. Then $X$ and $Y$ are independent, as well as $X$ and $mathcalF$, so the assumption on the independence is satisfied. For $F:= A_3$ we have
$$int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP = int 1_A_1 cdot 1_A_2 cdot 1_A_3 , dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1 cap A_2 cap A_3) = 0 tag1 $$
On the other hand,
$$int_F mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF), dmathbbP = mathbbP(A_1) cdot underbracemathbbE(Y)_mathbbP(A_2) cdot mathbbP(A_3)>0 tag2$$
where we used that $Y$ and $mathcalF$ are independent (hence $mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)=mathbbE(Y)$). Since by the definition of conditional expectation
$$0 stackrel(1)= int_F X cdot Y , dmathbbP stackrel!= int_F mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) , dmathbbP$$
we conclude from $(2)$ that
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) neq mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
But: If $sigma(X)$ is independent of $sigma(Y,mathcalF)$ (i.e. the smallest $sigma$-algebra containing $mathcalF$ and $sigma(Y)$), then the claim holds as the following proof shows:
Denote by $mathcalG := sigma(mathcalF,sigma(Y))$ the $sigma$-algebra generated by $mathcalF$ and $Y$. Since $sigma(X)$ and $mathcalG$ are independent, we have
$$mathbbE(X mid mathcalG) = mathbbE(X)$$
Consequently, by the tower property
$$mathbbE(X cdot Y mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(Y cdot underbracemathbbE(X mid mathcalG)_mathbbE(X) mid mathcalF) = mathbbE(X) cdot mathbbE(Y mid mathcalF)$$
edited Sep 5 at 7:55
gofvonx
1,042828
1,042828
answered Oct 29 '13 at 18:11
saz
74k553113
74k553113
2
I have used your answer to correct the Wikipedia page on conditional expectation (see <en.wikipedia.org/w/â¦). Thank you.
â Ben Whitney
Jul 9 '15 at 19:32
add a comment |Â
2
I have used your answer to correct the Wikipedia page on conditional expectation (see <en.wikipedia.org/w/â¦). Thank you.
â Ben Whitney
Jul 9 '15 at 19:32
2
2
I have used your answer to correct the Wikipedia page on conditional expectation (see <en.wikipedia.org/w/â¦). Thank you.
â Ben Whitney
Jul 9 '15 at 19:32
I have used your answer to correct the Wikipedia page on conditional expectation (see <en.wikipedia.org/w/â¦). Thank you.
â Ben Whitney
Jul 9 '15 at 19:32
add a comment |Â
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